The Ledger: 2023’s economic predictions

The possibility of a recession is looming, with some economists saying it’s already arrived. In Bloomberg’s November 2022 economic survey, economist respondents predicted a slowing economy with rising interest rates and declining real GDP.

Source: Bloomberg, November 2022

The probability of a recession

62.5%

Predictions

Real GDP is predicted to slow
2021: 5.9%
2022 1.8%
2023 .4%

The consumer price index will drop
2021: 4.7%
2022 8.1%
2023 4.3%

Unemployment will stay below 2021 levels
2021: 5.4%
2022 3.7%
2023 4.3%

Central bank interest rates will rise
2021: .25%
2022 4.5%
2023 4.7%